Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall 0.4% in 2026 to 38.2 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide, according to the Global Carbon Project. Researchers say higher oil prices and supply disruptions linked to the Iran war likely drove much of the decline. Solar and wind power and electric vehicles also helped limit emissions as global energy demand grew.
Oil emissions fall while coal emissions rise
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz constrained oil supplies and pushed prices higher. The researchers project that emissions from oil will fall 1.9% this year, the largest drop among the major fossil fuels. Natural gas emissions are expected to decline 0.3%, while coal emissions are projected to rise 0.6%.
The picture varies across major economies. Fossil CO₂ emissions are projected to fall 0.9% in China, 1.3% in the United States and 1.5% in the European Union. India’s emissions are expected to rise 4.4%, exceeding its average annual growth rate over the past decade.
Total CO₂ emissions are still expected to rise
When researchers include emissions from land-use changes, global CO₂ emissions are projected to reach 43.3 billion metric tons, up from 42.8 billion in 2025. Peat fires and forest degradation in Southeast Asia contributed to the increase, with drier conditions linked to El Niño.
A companion study in Nature Climate Change estimates that solar and wind power and electric vehicles could offset 64% to 79% of the emissions increase that would otherwise come from growing demand through 2028. The researchers say faster deployment of those technologies is needed for fossil fuel emissions to enter a sustained decline.
